New Executive Order Escalates Critical Minerals Trade Policy

Summary

On Jan. 14, 2026, President Trump issued a proclamation directing the Administration to address imports of processed critical minerals and their derivative products (PCMDPs). The proclamation comes as a result of a Department of Commerce section 232 investigation focused on identifying national security risks arising from import dependence on PCMDPs. The Secretary of Commerce found that, “The United States is too reliant on foreign sources of PCMDPs, lacks access to a sufficiently secure and reliable supply chain to PCMDPs, is experiencing unsustainable price volatility with respect to critical mineral markets, and is suffering from weakened domestic manufacturing and production capacity of PCMDPs.”

Background: Rising Demand, Lagging Capacity

The proclamation acknowledged that while domestic processing capacity has lagged, U.S. demand for critical minerals continues to rise. These minerals are essential for defense systems, clean energy technologies, and advanced manufacturing. The Department of Commerce’s section 232 investigation concluded that U.S. dependence on foreign sources for processed critical minerals poses significant national security risks, particularly given unsustainable price volatility and insufficient domestic manufacturing capacity.

Key Takeaways

• “Commercial Diplomacy” First. Rather than immediately imposing tariffs, the Administration is emphasizing negotiations and “commercial diplomacy” to narrow the supply-demand gap and secure more favorable supply arrangements for the United States.
• 180-Day Negotiation Window. The proclamation directs the Department of Commerce and the U.S. Trade Representative to jointly pursue agreements aimed at reducing national security risks tied to PCMDP imports, including through mechanisms such as price floors.
• Authority to Impose Tariffs Retained. If agreements are not reached within 180 days, are not implemented, or fail to deliver the intended results, the President retains the authority to impose more stringent import adjustments.
• Supply Chain Diversification Opportunities. The Administration’s focus on allied coordination and domestic capacity expansion may create opportunities for firms that can support U.S.-based processing, refining, and broader supply-chain diversification.

What This Means for Your Business

For Companies Operating Across the Critical Minerals Value Chain:

• Increased Regulatory Engagement. The proclamation points to potential closer regulatory scrutiny and engagement with companies throughout the supply chain.
• New Pricing Frameworks. Negotiations may result in price floors or other pricing mechanisms that could affect import costs and market dynamics.
• Potential Trade Barriers. If negotiations fail, companies should be prepared for the possibility of tariffs or other import restrictions on PCMDPs.

For U.S.-Based Processors and Refiners:

• Expansion Opportunities. The Administration’s focus on domestic capacity expansion may create favorable conditions for investment in U.S.-based processing and refining operations.
• Allied Coordination Benefits. Companies aligned with U.S. supply-chain security objectives may find enhanced opportunities for partnerships and government support.

For Prime Contractors and End Users:

• Supply Chain Evaluation. Companies should assess their exposure to potential price increases or supply disruptions resulting from new trade measures.
• Strategic Sourcing. Consider diversifying supply sources to align with evolving U.S. trade policy priorities.

What Companies Should Do Now

• Monitor Government Engagement. Closely follow negotiations between the Department of Commerce, USTR, and partner governments throughout the 180-day window.
• Assess Tariff Exposure. Evaluate your company’s exposure to potential tariffs or pricing mechanisms that may be implemented if negotiations fail.
• Review Supply Chain Strategy. Consider whether your current supply arrangements align with U.S. supply-chain security objectives and explore opportunities for diversification.
• Consider Domestic Capacity Investment. For processors and refiners, evaluate opportunities to expand U.S.-based operations in light of potential policy support for domestic capacity building.
• Engage with Trade Associations. Participate in industry forums to stay informed about developments and coordinate advocacy efforts if needed.

Bottom Line

The January 14 proclamation makes clear that future access to the U.S. market for processed critical minerals will increasingly depend not just on cost and efficiency, but on alignment with U.S. supply-chain and security objectives. The 180-day negotiation window will be a critical period. Companies operating across the critical minerals value chain should proactively monitor developments, evaluate their strategic positioning, and consider adjustments to mitigate risks and capitalize on potential opportunities arising from this evolving policy landscape.

We understand that navigating the complexities of evolving trade policy can be challenging. Our team is here to assist you in understanding these developments and their implications for your business.

Contact Clark Hill

If you have questions regarding the content of this alert, please contact one of the authors from our Clark Hill Public Strategies Team:

• Kelsey Christensen (kchristensen@clarkhill.com; 202.230.9889)
• Ronald D. Sullivan (rsullivan@clarkhill.com; 202.809.2235)
• Kristina Aleksanyan (kaleksanyan@clarkhill.com; 202.640.6641)
• Mariana Berumen, (mberumen@clarkhill.com; 202.552.2362)

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