November 3, 2010 Republicans Take House; Democrats Retain Senate Control Many Members of Congress returning to Washington on November 15 to wrap up the 111th Congress will not be returning on January 4 when the 112th Congress convenes. An exit poll found that Republicans equaled Democrats as a share of the electorate; just two years ago, Democrats outnumbered Republicans as a share of all voters by 40 to 33 percent. That shift reflected the declining participation of some of the Democrats' best groups and a surge among those favoring Republicans. House Republicans easily exceeded the 52 seats they picked up on election night in 1994, scoring the highest single-election gain for either party since 1948, when Democrats gained 75 seats.  In total, House Republicans are expected to pick up 64 seats, erasing the gains Democrats had made over the past two election cycles. In the Senate, Democrats are expected to retain 13 of their 19 seats that were up for reelection while all 18 Republican incumbents won their reelections, resulting in a gain of six seats and cutting Democrats' majority from 59-41 to 53-47. Legislative Impact of Elections Certainly, the 2010 election results will impact legislative activity in the lame duck session later this year and in 2011.  With energy legislation the only issue that could be sped through the Senate using reconciliation, every bill  during the lame duck is potentially a filibuster target for Republicans that want to start over in January. Issues that could see floor time during the lame duck: Likely: Continuing Resolution Through February Arms Control Treaty with Russia Unemployment Benefits Extension Extension of Bush Tax Cuts Child Immigration 50/50: Defense Authorization Child Nutrition Food Safety Unlikely: Omnibus Appropriations Comprehensive Energy Legislation Broad Immigration Reform Boehner's Plan The real story, however, is the power shift in the House and Speaker-Elect Jim Boehner's (OH-8) plan for Republican rule.  Republicans could have expected to make gains that are typical during a midterm election with the opposing party in control of both chambers and the White House.  However, the scope of their victory is due in large part to the Tea Party's energy in this cycle.  The Republican Caucus has never been so diverse and Boehner's ability to lead moderates and Tea Party Republicans will be an experiment in leadership for the Ohioan. "In the House right now, we don't have legislators; we just have voters.  Under Speaker Pelosi, 430 out of the 435 members are just here to vote and raise money.  That's not right," said Boehner leading up to this year's elections. Under Boehner, it appears committee chairs will be given much broader power when it comes to writing legislation -- a process that would likely result in fewer major pieces of legislation on the House floor during the 112th Congress.  In doing so, Boehner is willing to sacrifice short-term political victories for what he sees as building stronger majorities and better public understanding of legislation before it reaches the floor. It also appears that the Speaker-elect will defer many committee chairmanships to seniority.  However, current Energy and Commerce Ranking Member Joe Barton (TX-6) is likely to be passed over in favor of Fred Upton (MI-6) due to Barton's criticism of the Administration's $20 million BP oil-spill bailout as a "shakedown" of the oil industry. Michigan Results With Fred Upton poised to take over the Energy and Commerce Committee, the 2010 elections made other waves in Michigan.  As expected, all Republican seats (open or incumbents) remained red. However, two of the three closely watched races went from Democrat- to Republican-controlled:  the seat vacated by Rep. Bart Stupak's retirement in the 1st District was won by Republican Dan Benishek and Rep. Mark Schauer (MI-7) lost to Tim Walberg, while Rep. Gary Peters (MI-9) hung on to beat  Republican Rocky Raczkowsk. The Schauer loss is significant for Michigan, as House Democratic Leadership were signaling that Schauer was being considered for the powerful Appropriations Committee, which would have made him the only Michigan Representative on that Committee following Rep. Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick's primary loss to newly-elected Hansen Clarke (MI-13).  It is unclear if any Michigan Republican will seek an assignment on that Committee. In addition, Senator Debbie Stabenow is eager to assume the chairmanship of the Agriculture Committee in the wake of Senator Blanche Lincoln's (D-AR) loss.  Although Stabenow is fourth in seniority on the Committee, those ahead of her are expected to keep their chairmanships on other committees. "With the next farm bill right around the corner, I am ready once again to advocate for and strengthen this critical part of our economy for Michigan and our country," Stabenow said in a morning statement laying claim to the job. Finally, there is speculation that Mike Rogers (MI-8) is under consideration to take control of the Permanent Special Committee on Intelligence to replace retiring Rep. Pete Hoekstra (MI-2).  Rogers is a former FBI agent and close to Speaker-Elect Boehner. Arizona Results Federal results from Arizona mirrored national trends - Republican incumbents won and open seats went to the GOP.  Reps. Ann Kirkpatrick (AZ-1) and Harry Mitchell (AZ-5) lost their reelection bids while another two Democrat incumbents, Reps. Raul Grijalva (AZ-7) and Gabrielle Giffords (AZ-8) lead by the slimmest of margins in races that will likely require recounts. Illinois Results In contrast to the rest of the country, a vast majority of incumbents - regardless of their party affiliation - won their reelection bids in the Land of Lincoln.  However, a small group of Democrat incumbents lost, including Reps. Debbie Halvorson (IL-11), Bill Foster (IL-14) and Phil Hare (IL-17). Equally important was Rep. Mark Kirk's victory over State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias for President Obama's former Senate seat, which had been filled by Rod Blagojevich's appointee, Senator Roland Burris, who opted not to run for reelection.  Whereas many of the headlines during the 2010 cycle focused on the Tea Party siphoning votes from the GOP,  Giannoulias' chance in the Illinois Senate race was spoiled by Green Party candidate, LeAlan Jones, who took away the necessary votes that could have put Giannoulias over the top. And while Rep. Fred Upton (MI-6) is a favorite to take over the Energy and Commerce chairmanship, Rep. John Shimkus (IL-19) is the Ranking Member of the Health Subcommittee, which will take a prominent role during an future GOP attempts to repeal  Democrats' health care reform bill.  House Republicans vs. President Obama? Complicating House Republicans' ability to deliver results is the Senate's division of power, which almost assures the death of future House Republican initiatives, including efforts to repeal health care reform.  The future of the 112th Congress will depend on Republicans' ability to work with the President.  If they cannot or are unwilling to do so, major legislative initiatives will be paid lip service until the results of the 2012 elections are in. If you have any questions concerning these issues, please contact Chris Wagner at 202.772.0924 or cwagner@clarkhill.com.

For more information contact: John Van Fossen jvanfossen@clarkhill.com Office: 517.318.3052 Team: Larry F. Ayers Alan L. Canady Delbert J. Chenault Roderick S. Coy Denise Illitch Andrew C. Richner Charles R. Spies Donald F. Tucker Reginald M. Turner James E. Tyrrell, III Lucius A. Vassar Bret S. Wacker Chris Wagner

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